Brad Olsen came to Waipā last week wanting to shake the tag “Bad News Brad” a certain broadcaster has taken to calling him.
Brad Olsen, the chief executive and principal economist at Infometrics, spoke about Economy shifting gears in 2025 – the outlook for Waikato and Waipā at a Cambridge Chamber of Commerce and Waipā District Council event at Mystery Creek last month. Watching on is chamber chief executive Kelly Bouzaid. Photo: Mary Anne Gill
Cambridge News 6 March 2025
“I feel like suddenly I can be Good News Brad, at least for the time being,” he told a gathering of business leaders at Mystery Creek. He revealed there was a “feeling of optimism” coming through the district.
“There are still some mixed signals, but as I say to people, I would rather have the mixed signals we’re seeing now that what we saw six months ago when everything was moving in the same direction, and that was down.”
Olsen was referring to Infometrics’ latest quarterly economic monitor, and it was his first presentation with them.
“We do think the economy is shifting gears,”.
He said that was led by the Reserve Bank’s ability to put inflation back in the box and falling mortgage rates which meant more money was staying in households’ pockets than a year ago.
But don’t expect more large falls, he said.
Brad Olsen at Mystery Creek during his presentation. Photo: Mary Anne Gill
“The Reserve Bank’s got to be a bit more careful that it doesn’t try and overstimulate the economy by cutting interest rates too much and then getting that inflation go up again.”
In Waipā, spending increased in the fourth quarter ending December 31, while the decline in international tourists had steadied and was looking to head upwards.
The housing market was still sluggish, and house prices were down 0.3 per cent, five percent shy of the 2021 peak. Construction and building consents have started to rise again, albeit marginally.
The labour market had been on a downward curve nationally but Waipā was up.
Cambridge Chamber of Commerce chief executive Kelly Bouzaid introduces Brad Olsen. Photo: Mary Anne Gill
“That’s consistent with a lot of the other trends where we’re seeing that rural and provincial economies are starting to drive the job activity.”
Jobs in health, public administration, agriculture, manufacturing, arts and recreation, education, utilities and mining had all improved in Waipā last year over 2023 while construction, accommodation and food and retail trade had eased down.
Waipā accounted for just over 14 per cent of the country’s agriculture, forest and fish gross domestic product – making it the district’s top earner – followed by manufacturing and construction.
Olsen said he valued getting out into the communities because it allowed him to see first-hand what was happening.
“It’s very hard to know if the grass is dry or not if you don’t get out of Wellington.”
Flying into Hamilton Airport it was clear there was not a lot of grass around Waipā, he said.
“I’m really glad that I took an international relations degree alongside economics at university because man it’s a good combo at the moment.
“When did you ever think we would see a Chinese naval task force in the Tasman?”
That would result in pressure going on to increase the Defence spend, said Olsen.
And the tariff penalties President Donald Trump was imposing would impact New Zealand because the country’s major trading partners, in order, are China, United States and Australia. Costs would be passed on, he said.
Olsen later told The News the Waikato region had job prospects but rural areas like Te Kūiti, Ōtorohanga and Putāruru would continue to struggle for staff because if people in Auckland or Wellington could not find jobs or business opportunities there, overseas was a better option.
Brad Olsen – Infometrics Powerpoint
They had less exposure to rural and primary economies and for younger people it represented a huge cultural change to move deep into the regions.
“What I think about in terms of doing for dinner in a regional town is quite different from what I think of doing in a metro.”
Places like Hamilton and Cambridge were different, he said, because of the transport networks created by Waikato Expressway.
“That and the inland port (in Hamilton) has opened up a lot of opportunity. You’ve got that sort of depth coming through because there is a big lot of activity happening around here.”
Brad Olsen with his Infometrics Economic Update
