Facilitator Josie Pagani, left with Keriana Brooking and insurance specialist Bryce Davies
From pandemics and floods to cyber disruption, climate change and landslides, New Zealand is entering an era where shocks are no longer rare events.
If proof was needed, it came the day after Waikato University Management School hosted an Economics Forum session this month in The Pā bluntly titled The Next Big Shock.
Once‑in‑a‑century floods hit parts of Waipā and Ōtorohanga.
Cambridge News 26 February 2026
Among those in the room for the forum was Waipā mayor Mike Pettit, who would declare a State of Emergency the next day.
And in January, a landslide at Mauao (Mount Maunganui) and another in Welcome Bay highlighted the growing risks posed by unstable hillsides.
The country’s biggest risk is not the disasters themselves but the failure to prepare, the panel heard.
Treasury chief strategist James Beard told the audience that a single major disaster can cost the equivalent of 10 per cent of GDP, yet New Zealand continues to treat many foreseeable events as surprises.
“A shock is often something that exceeds our capacity to cope. Preparation changes that.”
Insurance executive Bryce Davies says floods, earthquakes and infrastructure failures should no longer be seen as unexpected.
“They are fully expected. The question is whether we’ve planned for them.”
Former Covid response leader Kiriana Brooking described crises as the collision of sudden shocks with long ignored trends, such as underinvestment in infrastructure or emergency systems.
“Covid and Cyclone Gabrielle weren’t just shocks. They exposed decisions not made years earlier.”
Waipā mayor Mike Pettit listens intently: the next day he was in the hot seat for The Next Big Shock. Photo: Mary Anne Gill
Economist Martin Lally challenged the audience to think beyond headline disasters, arguing that slow burn crises like obesity, addiction and chronic disease impose far greater long term costs than many sudden events.
“Obesity is over 100 times more serious than the most extreme forecasts. It is not much point getting bent out of shape over pandemics when you are ignoring meth and alcohol and obesity.”
For regional New Zealand, the implications are particularly acute. Smaller communities often lack the resources to absorb disruption yet are more exposed to climate and infrastructure risks.
Brooking highlighted how many households lack the means to cope with even short term supply disruptions, turning manageable events into social crises.
There was a need to shift from reactive emergency response to proactive risk management, integrating land use planning, insurance, infrastructure investment and clear rules about who pays when disaster strikes.
“We focus on response because it’s visible. But resilience is built quietly, long before anything goes wrong,” said Davies.
For businesses in Waikato, the message was direct: resilience is now a competitive advantage.
Companies and regions that plan for disruption will recover faster and suffer less when the next shock arrives.
And as the following day proved, it’s not a question of if, but when.
Facilitator Josie Pagani, left with Keriana Brooking and insurance specialist Bryce Davies. Photo: Mary Anne Gill
